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Energy future: Report of the energy project at the Harvard Business SchoolFrom Vintage Books
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Item specifics Condition: definitions ISBN-10: 039474750X Publication Year: 1983 ISBN-13: 9780394747507 Language: English Author: Harvard University, Daniel Yergin, Robert B. Stobaugh Format: Paperback Edition Number: 3 ISBN: 9780394747507 Detailed item info Product Identifiers ISBN-10 039474750X ISBN-13 9780394747507 Key Details Author Daniel Yergin, Harvard University, Robert B. Stobaugh Publication Date 1983-01-01 Language English Publisher Vintage Books
- Sales Rank: #4208944 in Books
- Published on: 1983
- Ingredients: Example Ingredients
- Number of items: 1
- Binding: Paperback
- 459 pages
Most helpful customer reviews
4 of 10 people found the following review helpful.
Great reportage, important topic, some analytical shortfall
By Novel List
This review will, alas, sound like a shot from the "let's not ever do anything" crowd. I have strong reservations about this book as a foundation for public policy, but even with those reservations my recommendation is that you read "The End Of Oil". Although the author's analytical skills will be faulted here, there is little doubt that people like me are whistling past an energy graveyard. New oil is not being made.
The book's value lies in its extensive reporting effort, its sustained focus (despite the tendency of many to dismiss energy economics as dull), and occasionally inspired description of mechanisms that perhaps need a greater place in the debate. (I had never considered the implications of a maxed-out global production system on price volatility, but obviously it could become an important expense determinant). In spite of my reservations, this book could be quite important if it provokes enough voters with the idea that "bad stuff" was happening to their energy resources. It would be wonderful if voters wanted to hear about it from their candidates, wanted articles in their newspapers, wanted to spend more - now - on developing alternatives. In this respect I think that the book is not sufficiently focused. As a debate generator it might have been better had it been shorter.
In the early 70s there was a spate of reports about global cooling. This was not the conclusion of fools or PR flacks, but analysis from outfits like the National Academy of Sciences or the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It was supported by data on growing seasons and the annual amount of sunlight reaching the ground. The conclusions were straightforward; crops could become imperiled, tundra at polar extremes was at risk of becoming year-round wastes. An important feature to note is that the uncertainty arising from these models was never discussed. This uncertainty was never less real (that is, it does not arise merely from the heated imagination of flacks). Moreover, knowledge of that uncertainty is essential to citizens who are looking for guidance on when and how to respond to models like this.
In brief, the unwillingness to deal with uncertainty is my chief concern with "The End of Oil". The author does make numerous references to the difficulties pertaining to getting good numbers. Just getting a good number for the amount of oil below a particular spot in the surface is tough, and the book describes surprises that have happened even with the best of technology. Politics and economics add deep difficulties. I suspect that it would be uncomfortable to be the first to present a forecast of future oil prices that showed error-bars. It is hard to gain the respect of your scientific colleagues if your work appears to be drowning in statistical noise. But it is essential to know the accuracy if we are to form good plans. A bad plan could be worse than "business as usual". What if we had responded to reports of global cooling by building more coal plants?
In short, I read this book with great interest. I plan on turning back to the first page and reading it again. Imperfections not withstanding, this is one of the best public compendiums of energy reporting of which I know.
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